The prospect of a U.S. diesel export ban, supported by President Donald Trump, poses potential risks for Mexico’s fuel supply. As Washington considers measures to tackle record-high fuel prices, Mexico, which depends heavily on U.S. diesel, could face significant challenges.
In June 2026, Mexico imported approximately 288,000 barrels per day of U.S. diesel, which accounted for more than 40% of its diesel demand. A restriction on these exports could lead to higher transportation and logistics costs for Mexico, necessitating a diversification of import sources and an expansion of domestic refining capacity.
Mexico’s government has stated that its domestic refining network can help maintain fuel supplies. It is also continuing with fuel subsidies and price-support measures, while exploring ways to strengthen domestic production and storage capacity.
Meanwhile, the U.S. administration is assessing whether a full or partial diesel export ban is feasible. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright has cautioned that such a move could disrupt other fuel markets and lead to increased prices.
As Mexico braces for a potential reduction in U.S. diesel supplies, the country may need to take strategic steps to reduce its reliance on U.S. fuel imports and ensure energy security.