Goldman Sachs raised its Brent crude price forecast for the fourth quarter of 2026 Thursday, reflecting expectations that the Middle East conflict will persist and keep supply tight for the foreseeable future. The bank now sees Brent at $71 a barrel in Q4 2026, up from a previous estimate of $66. The revision came as oil prices hovered near $100 a barrel following another day of Iranian strikes on Gulf energy infrastructure.
Iranian forces struck merchant shipping near the Strait of Hormuz, fuel tanks in Bahrain, oil tankers near Iraq’s ports, and the port area adjacent to Oman’s Mina Al Fahal terminal. Three crew members on the Thai-registered Mayuree Naree were reported trapped following a ship attack. Iraq shut its oil export ports, Bahrain issued shelter-in-place orders, and Oman evacuated its main crude terminal.
Brent crude rose 9% to briefly touch $100.29 a barrel on Thursday before retreating to around $98, still up about 6% for the day. West Texas Intermediate climbed 8.6% to $94.75. Oil has surged from approximately $60 a barrel at the start of the year, hitting a peak of $119 earlier in the week before partially recovering on mixed signals from Washington.
The IEA released 400 million barrels of emergency crude from reserves held by its 32 members — a historic first — while the US announced a separate release of 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Despite the scale of the response, rising violence outpaced the supply relief in the eyes of markets. Iran raised the stakes further by threatening $200-per-barrel oil.
Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid warned of stagflation risk. Japan’s Nikkei fell 1.6% and South Korea’s Kospi declined 1.2%. European natural gas prices rose 7.7% for a second consecutive day, adding to the inflationary pressure building across global economies.